← Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional - Hideout
decks
5
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
46
12-31-3
overall winrate
29.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.9%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
39.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1173
· range 1149–1352
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1182
Q3 1372
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
80% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 18 | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 38.6% | 45.6% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 37.1% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.9% | -12.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
